Section Menu

Mobile Value-Added Services (VAS) in 4G: Market Analysis and Forecasts for LTE-Based VAS 2013 – 2018

Published

October 2013

Pages

178

Pricing

Single-user License: $ 2,995 USD
Company-wide License: $ 6,995 USD
Team License (Up to 5 Users): $ 3,995 USD

Keywords

4G, LTE, Long Term Evolution, VAS, Value-added Services, LTE VAS, RCS, Rich Communications Suite, VoLTE, Voice over IP 4G, API Services, Mobile Advertising, Social Networking, Mobile Gaming, Mobile Virtual Goods, Video, Mobile TV, Second Screen, Mobile Health, Mobile Entertainment, Connected Vehicles, Public Safety LTE, Next Generation Messaging, Small Cell Advertising

Overview

In the pre-LTE marketplace, the biggest mobile value-added services (VAS) are mobile apps and mobile advertising. This does not change simply with the introduction of LTE, as there will only be roughly 184 million LTE subscribers globally against 7.2 billion subs overall by year end 2013. A transformation will occur over a period of years in which certain key mobile VAS applications will establish a sustainable market position for the network operators. In fact, this must occur for carriers to establish new revenue streams for business growth beyond core voice and data services as well as anticipated margin squeeze.

The first part of this report assesses the current state of LTE. The report then analyzes value-added services (VAS) in the post LTE era. The research takes an umbrella approach as it evaluates data, mobile advertising, and mobile apps first, and then considers market verticals. Mind Commerce explains how revenues are realized in each market. Mind Commerce examines Rich Communications Suite (RCS) and Voice over LTE (VoLTE). The report describes how the market will develop, in general, and also evaluate what countries are likely to adopt VoLTE by taking a detailed look at infrastructure, spectrum, and the competitive landscape in each country.

The report includes forecasts for 2013 - 2018 for every major VAS application category including:

• Mobile Data
• Voice over LTE (VoLTE)
• Rich Communication Suite (RCS)
• Mobile Advertising
• API-based Apps
• Social Networking
• Coupons and Loyalty
• Geo-location
• Mobile Gaming
• Mobile Virtual Goods
• Video, TV, and Second Screen
• Mobile Health
• Mobile Entertainment
• Machine-to-Machine (M2M)
• Connected Vehicles
• Public Safety
• Messaging (non RCS)
• Small Cell Targeted Advertising

The report includes conclusions and recommendations for network operators, content providers, application developers, and infrastructure providers. The Report also includes vendor analysis from selected companies including Empirix, OpenCloud, Openmind Networks, Samsung, and Tropo.

See Table of Contents for complete list of areas covered.

Key Findings

  • Challenges to carrier business include existing concerns, such as Over-the-Top (OTT) service providers, as well as emerging threats such as Direct (Peer-to-Peer) Communications, which shall ironically be enabled via LTE.
  • Network operators must deal with the threat of these "dial around" voice over wireless IP (or VoIP over Wireless OTT) OTT service providers by offering their own "dialable" VoIP. Dialable VoIP is enabled through Voice over LTE (VoLTE). Network operators must also offer Rich Communications Suite (RCS) as a multimedia VAS application to combat OTT competition. Carriers must also embrace API integration with various third-parties to offer their own VAS.
  • It is our strong recommendation to incumbent carriers that they recognize that core bearer based revenues will go down over time. They must leverage LTE infrastructure and capabilities to offer their own differentiating capabilities including premium-priced VAS applications.

Report Benefits

  • Global and regional forecast for key apps: VoLTE and RCS
  • Forecasts for 2013 - 2018 for every major LTE VAS application
  • Identify challenges and opportunities for LTE services providers
  • Understand the business drivers and key success factors for VoLTE and RCS
  • Identify opportunities for infrastructure providers and application developers
  • Understand LTE technology and supporting next generation network infrastructure
  • Identify emerging opportunities including Connected Vehicles and Small Cell Advertising

Audience

  • OSS/BSS Solution Providers
  • Mobile Network Operators
  • Mobile Software Developers
  • Mobile Payment Service Providers
  • Handset and Tablet Manufacturers
  • Content and Applications Mediators
  • Social Commerce Vendors and providers
  • Mobile Marketing and Advertising Providers
  • Telecommunications Infrastructure Providers

Table of Contents

  • Executive Summary
  • Introduction
  • Long Term Evolution (LTE)
  • LTE 2013 Status Update
  • LTE Subscriptions
  • LTE Release 11 and the Roadmap Beyond
  • LTE Direct
  • LTE Direct Applications
  • LTE Value-Added Services (VAS)
  • Assumptions about Mobile Subscriptions and Mobile Data
  • Mobile Data
  • Mobile Advertising
  • API-Based Apps Downloads
  • Social Networking/Matching
  • Coupons, Loyalty and Venue-Based Services
  • Geo-Location Based Services
  • Mobile Gaming
  • Mobile Virtual Goods
  • Video, TV, Pay-TV and Second-Screen
  • Mobile Health
  • Music Services (including Ringback and Ringtones)
  • Machine-to-Machine (M2M)
  • Connected Vehicles
  • Public Safety LTE
  • Messaging, Texting and SMS (Not Related to RCS)
  • Small Cell Targeted Advertising
  • Miscellaneous Subscription Services
  • LTE VAS Roll-Up
  • The Most Actively Anticipated VAS: VoLTE
  • How VoLTE works
  • Why VoLTE is in the Best Interests of Mobile Operators
  • Management of Macro Spectrum
  • Greater Efficiency of Micro Spectrum
  • Improved QOS
  • Less Hardware and COTS Equipment
  • Roaming will be Dramatically Easier
  • Less Expensive Per Bit Backhaul
  • Comparable Devices Perform Better on LTE than on 3G Networks
  • Factors that Could Slow the Growth of VoLTE
  • Spectrum Issues Including the Lack of Globally Harmonized Spectrum
  • Lack of Spectrum Coherency in the United States
  • Device Manufacturers are Reticent to Support VoLTE
  • Technical Challenges in the Network
  • Relaxed Rules on Network Sharing in the European Commission
  • The Global Recession Continues
  • The Status of Current VoLTE Mobile Operators
  • Rich Communications Suite (RCS)
  • RCS/joynŽ
  • Release Standards, Suites and Profiles in the JOYNŽ Platform
  • RCS/joynŽ as of Today
  • RCS/joynŽ and the Elephant in the Room
  • RCS Approaches Not Involving JOYNŽ
  • OTT Service Providers
  • Mobile Operators Versus Over-The-Top Service Providers
  • Mobile Operators and OTT Providers: Coexistence?
  • RCS/joyn Revenues
  • Prospects for VoLTE and RCS Deployments by Region
  • Asia Pacific
  • Australia
  • China
  • Hong Kong
  • India
  • Japan
  • South Korea
  • Rest of Asia Pacific
  • Forecast Asia Pacific VoLTE
  • CALA
  • Argentina
  • Brazil
  • Chile
  • Colombia
  • Mexico
  • Puerto Rico
  • Rest of CALA
  • Forecast CALA VoLTE
  • Eastern Europe
  • Hungary
  • Poland
  • Romania
  • Russia
  • Rest of Eastern Europe
  • Forecast Eastern Europe VoLTE
  • Middle East and Africa
  • Continental Africa
  • Saudi Arabia
  • South Africa
  • Rest of Middle East and Africa
  • Forecast Middle East and Africa VoLTE
  • North America
  • Timeline of Activities in the North American Market
  • AT&T
  • Bell Mobility
  • Clearwire
  • Rogers Wireless
  • Spring
  • Telus Mobility
  • T-Mobile/METROPCS
  • Verizon Wireless
  • Rest of Region North America
  • Forecast North America VoLTE
  • Western Europe
  • Strategies of the Pan-European Mobile Carriers
  • France
  • Germany
  • Italy
  • Spain
  • Sweden
  • United Kingdom
  • Rest of Western Europe
  • Forecast Western Europe VoLTE
  • Roll-Up Forecast Global VoLTE
  • Vendor Analysis
  • Empirix
  • Opencloud
  • Openmind Networks
  • Samsung
  • Tropo
  • Conclusions and Recommendations
  • Carriers
  • Content Providers
  • Application Developers
  • Consumer Market
  • Enterprise Market
  • Independents
  • Infrastructure Providers
  • Ericsson
  • Huawei
  • Nokia Siemens Networks
  • Alcatel-Lucent
  • ZTE
  • Wireless Device Providers
  • Overview
  • LTE Handset Issues
  • Glossary
  • Appendices
  • LTE Technology and Architecture
  • LTE Technology
  • LTE Advanced
  • LTE Infrastructure Elements and Architecture
  • LTE Architecture Details
  • Service Architecture
  • Layer 2 of LTE
  • Downlink Logical
  • Uplink Logical
  • Mobility Across ENBS
  • IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS)
  • Service Centralized and Continuity Application Server (SCC)

List of Graphs

  • Figure 1: Depiction of LTE Direct Public Expression
  • Figure 2: Qualcomm Differentiated Apps/Services for Proximate Discover
  • Figure 3: Evolution of Mobile Advertising
  • Figure 4: VoLTE Commitments and Deployments, GSA May 2013
  • Figure 5: Legacy Services, RCS-e and RCS5
  • Figure 6: OTT Service Providers vs Mobile Operators
  • Figure 7: Dynamic Address Book (DAM)
  • Figure 8: Wireless Network Infrastructure RAN Vendor Ranking Matrix 2012
  • Figure 9: Core Network Vendor Ranking Matrix 2012
  • Figure 10: 4G Handset Technical Issues
  • Figure 11: LTE E-UTRAN Infrastructure Network Elements
  • Figure 12: LTE EPC Infrastructure Network Elements
  • Figure 13: Understanding LTE Network Elements and Channels
  • Figure 14: IMS Planes
  • Figure 15: IMS Model
  • Figure 16: Service Centralized and Continuity Application Server

List of Tables

  • Table 1: Global Value of All LTE VAS, $US Millions, 2013- 2018
  • Table 2: LTE in 2013
  • Table 3: LTE Subscriptions, by Region, Subscriptions Millions, 2013-2018
  • Table 4: Formal Status of LTE Release 10, 11 and 12
  • Table 5: Mobile Subscriptions by 2G/3G and LTE, Subscriptions Millions, 2013-2018
  • Table 6: Mobile Data Consumption per Mobile Subscription, by 2G/3G and LTE, Subscriptions Millions, PB, 2013-2018
  • Table 7: Estimate Revenues Made by Mobile Operators. From Data Usage Plans, % of Which Comes From LTE, $US Millions, 2013-2018
  • Table 8: Mobile Advertising Revenues by Type and by Device, all Mobile, $US Millions, 2013-2018
  • Table 9: Mobile Advertising Revenues Derived from LTE VAS, by Type and by Device, $US Millions, 2013-2018
  • Table 10: Size of Mobile Apps Market (less Embedded Advertising), Revenues from LTE, $US Millions, 2013-2018
  • Table 11: Financial Milestones in Social Media
  • Table 12: Metrics, Tendencies, and Nuances in Mobile Social Networking
  • Table 13: Estimated LTE VAS Revenues from Social Networking Sites (Memberships and Ad Revenues), $US Millions, 2013-2018
  • Table 14: Value of Mobile Coupon Redemptions, LTE, $US Millions, 2013-2018
  • Table 15: Value of Mobile Coupons, Loyalty-Based, and Venue Based Services, All Mobile and LTE, $US Millions, 2013-2018
  • Table 16: Acquisitions of Location-Based Services Companies or Technical Collaborations
  • Table 17: Global Market Size of Location-Based Services (LBS) and Ad Revenues from LBS, $US Millions, 2013-2018
  • Table 18: LTE Global Market Size of Location-Based Services (LBS) and Ad Revenues from LBS, $US Millions, 2013-2018
  • Table 19: Revenues from Global Gaming Apps Market and From Ads from the Mobile Gaming Market, $US Millions, 2013-2018
  • Table 20: Revenues from Global LTE Gaming Apps Market, LTE Mobile Ads, and LTE Gaming Subscription Services, $US Millions, 2013-2018
  • Table 21: Approximate Value of LTE Data for Video, Web Browsing and Internet, and used to Play Mobile Games, $US Millions, 2013-2018
  • Table 22: Revenues from Mobile Virtual Goods and from LTE Virtual Goods, US$ Millions, 2013-2018
  • Table 23: Revenues from Multiscreen, Streaming TV Services and Pay TV, VOD, Revenues from LTE, $US Millions, 2013-2018
  • Table 24: Revenues from Mobile Health Services, Revenues from LTE, $US Millions, 2013-2018
    Table 25: Revenues from Music Subscriptions Services, Songs Downloads, Music Videos, Ringtones, and Ring-backs, Revenues from LTE, $US Millions, 2013-2018
  • Table 26: M2M Cellular Connections and Revenues, LTE Connections and Revenues, Subs Millions, $US Millions, 2013-2018
  • Table 27: Connected Automobile and Revenues from Automotive VAS, Connections that are LTE and Revenues, $US Millions, 2013-2018
  • Table 28: Points of Interest about the US Public Safety Including FirstNet
  • Table 29: Revenues from LTE Public Safety, $US Millions, 2013-2018
  • Table 30: Revenues Derived by Mobile Operators from LTE Texting (Discrete Service), $US Millions, 2013-2018
  • Table 31: Global Ad Revenues from Small Cells, US$ Millions, 2013-2018
  • Table 32: Revenues from Miscellaneous LTE VAS, $US Millions, 2013-2018
  • Table 33: LTE Value-added Services, Type of Service, $US Millions, 2013-2018
  • Table 34: Major OTT Communication Service Providers
  • Table 35: RCS/joynŽ Subscribers, LTE Subs, by Region, Subs Millions, 2013-2018
  • Table 36: RCS/joynŽ Subscriber Revenues, Revenues from LTE, by Region, $US Millions, 2013-2018
  • Table 37: RCS/joynŽ Mobile Ad Revenues, Revenues from LTE, by Region, $US Millions, 2013-2018
  • Table 38: Asia Pacific VoLTE Subscribers, VoLTE Revenue and VoLTE POP, Revenues US$Millions, Subscribers and POP in Thousands, 2013-2018
  • Table 39: Brazil Mobile Subscriptions (as of May 2013), Subscriptions in Millions, % of Overall Market
  • Table 40: CALA VoLTE Subscribers, VoLTE Revenue and VoLTE POP, Revenues US$Millions, Subscribers and POP in Thousands, 2013-2018
  • Table 41: Local Eastern European Mobile Operators Owned by Pan-European Operators, Subscribers in Millions, Ownership by Operator
    Table 42: Eastern Europe VoLTE Subscribers, VoLTE Revenue and VoLTE POP, Revenues US$Millions, Subscribers and POP in Thousands, 2013-2018
  • Table 43: Middle East and Africa VoLTE Subscribers, VoLTE Revenue and VoLTE POP, Revenues US$Millions, Subscribers and POP in Thousands, 2013-2018
  • Table 44: Long-term Objectives of Sprint Network Vision
  • Table 45: North America VoLTE Subscribers, VoLTE Revenue and VoLTE POP, Revenues US$Millions, Subscribers and POP in Thousands, 2013-2018
  • Table 46: European Countries where Pan-European Carriers have National
  • Table 47: Vodafone LTE and RCS/joynŽ Presence in Europe
  • Table 48: Western Europe VoLTE Subscribers, VoLTE Revenue and VoLTE POP, Revenues US$Millions, Subscribers and POP in Thousands, 2013-2018
  • Table 49: Global VoLTE Subscribers, VoLTE Revenue and VoLTE POP, Revenues US$Millions, Subscribers and POP in Thousands, 2013-2018