Section Menu

Capitalizing on LTE Mobile Broadband: Strategies, Risk and Potential Revenues

January 2012

Single-user License: $ 2,500 USD
Global Site Licence: $ 3,500 USD

Report Name:

REPORT_21_Capitalizing on LTE Mobile Broadband – Strategies, Risk and Potential Revenue.pdf

Subject

Mobile Devices, Cellular Networks, Mobile Network Operators, Mobile Network Pricing, Telecom Regulation

Abstract

This report presents an independent analysis of capitalizing on Long-Term Evolution (LTE) technology for mobile broadband, including potential revenues, strategies and risk. The report begins by presenting an overview of LTE technology, system performance, cost of deployment estimation, an overview of LTE infrastructure/device vendors and a detailed assessment of latest LTE mobile broadband service data plans as of January 2012 among leading LTE operators. The report then presents an in-depth assessment of strategy for LTE operators and device manufacturers for the next 5 years. The report then presents an analysis of LTE revenue and cash flow for the largest LTE operator in the world today - Verizon Wireless, from 2011 till 2021. The analysis is based on a novel simulation model that estimates projected cash flow based on operator and analyst input on LTE subscribers’ growth, ARPU, types of revenues and the cost of capital. Results of the assessment indicate that incumbent 2G/3G operators such as Verzion Wireless will start seeing profitable LTE revenues in 5 to 7 years after LTE service launch. Verizon Wireless, in particular, will witness the start of its CAPEX recovery in 2018, from large scale CAPEX investments on its LTE footprint which are expected to reach 22 Billion USD. The report concludes by presenting a risk assessment analysis for LTE operators.

Who needs to read this report?

• Mobile Network Operators (MNOs)
• Mobile Service Providers / Merchants
• Handset Manufacturers
• Financial analysts covering the telecom sector

Companies Mentioned

ETSI, ATIS, TTA, ARIB, CCSA,TTC).Ericsson,4G America, Verizon Wireless, AT&T, US Cellular, MetroPCS, Cox Cable, Cellular South, CenturyTel, PCMag.com, Spirent, T-Mobile USA, Cricket, Leap NextWave, Aloha Partners, Rogers, Telus, Bell Mobility Inc, France Telecom / Orange, Bouygues Telecom, SFR, Telefónica, Vodafone, TeliaSonera, TIM, Vodafone, Wind Italy and H3G Italia ,O2 Germany, T-Mobile, E-Plus, DT, Vodafone D2, Vodafone Essar, Bharti Airtel, LightSquared, Sprint, Nextel, Clearwire Global mobile Suppliers Association Samsung, HTC, LG, Motorola Compaq, HP TeliaSonera, TeliaSonera, MTS, UCell, Mobyland & CenterNet, MetroPCS, A1 Telekom Austria, TeleNor Sweden, Tele2 Sweden, CSL Limited, TeliaSonera, Vodafone, Verizon Wireless, Elisa, TeliaSonera, EMT, NTT DoCoMo, Deutsche Telekom, Smart Communications, Omnitel, LMT, M1,SK Telecom, LG, Rogers Wireless, T-Mobile, Bell Mobility, Mobily, STC, Zain, Etisalat, Telstra, TDC,Telia Sweden, Telia Sonera Norway (Nextgentel), Vodafone Germany, T-Mobile Austria, T-Mobile Austria, Telstra Australia, NTT DoCoMo Japan, Alcatel-Lucent, Nokia Siemens Networks Huawei - Etisalat and Vimpelcom/Karte, Ericsson AB, China Unicom, AXIS, SingTel,O2 in UK, WRI, NEC Corp., ZTE Corporation, Skype, WhatsApp, iMessage, Viber,Shopkick, ShopSavvy, eBuy, Discover Financial Services, Barclays, Research In Motion, SK Telecom, Apple, Microsoft, Nokia, Samsung, Deutsche Telekom,ABC Entertainment, ABC Family, ABC News, Disney Channel, Disney XD,ESPN, MetroSTUDIO, Ubitus Inc, OnLive, Google, Qualcomm, SEQUANS, Samsung, ST Ericsson, Altair Semiconductor, Infinion, MediaTek, Renesas, Broadcom, nVIDIA, Samsung, LG, Motorola, Research In Motion, HTC, Cisco, Navini, Starent Networks, KPN, BBM, Twitter, Facebook, Yoigo

Countries Covered

Afghanistan, Albania, Algeria, Andorra, Angola, Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, Armenia, Aruba, Australia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Bahamas, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Barbados, Belarus, Belgium, Belize, Benin, Bermuda, Bhutan, Bolivia, Bosnia Herzegovina, Botswana, Brazil, British Virgin Islands, Brunei, Bulgaria, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Cameroon, Canada, Cape Verde, Cayman Islands, Central African Republic, Chad, Chile, China, Cocos Islands, Colombia, Comoros Islands, Congo, Cook Islands, Costa Rica, Côte d'Ivoire, Croatia, Cuba, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Democratic Republic of Congo, , Denmark, Djibouti, Dominica, Dominican Republic, East Timor, Ecuador, Egypt, El Salvador, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Estonia, Ethiopia, Faroe Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Finland, France, French Guiana, French Polynesia , French West Indies, Gabon, Gambia, Georgia, Germany, Ghana, Gibraltar, Greece, Greenland, Grenada, Guam, Guatemala, Guernsey, Guinea Republic, Guinea-Bissau, Guyana,Haiti, Honduras, Hong Kong, Hungary, Iceland, India, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ireland, Isle of Man, Israel, Italy, Jamaica, Japan, Jersey, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kirghizstan, Kiribati, Korea, Kosovo, Kuwait, Laos,Latvia, Lebanon, Lesotho, Liberia, Libya, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Macau, Macedonia, Madagascar, Malawi, Malaysia, Maldives, Mali, Malta, Marshall Islands, Mauritania, Mauritius, Mayotte, Mexico, Moldova, Monaco, Mongolia, Montenegro, Montserrat, Morocco, Mozambique, Myanmar, Namibia, Nepal,Netherlands, Netherlands Antilles, New Caledonia, New Zealand, Nicaragua,Niger, Nigeria, Niue, North Korea, Northern Marianas, Norway, Oman, Pakistan,Palau, Palestine, Panama, Papua New Guinea, Paraguay, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Puerto Rico, Qatar, Réunion, Romania, Russia, Rwanda, Samoa, Samoa (American), Sao Tomé and Principe, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Serbia, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Singapore, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Solomon Islands, Somalia, South Africa, Spain, Sri Lanka, St Kitts and Nevis, St Lucia, St Vincent and The Grenadines, Sudan, Suriname, Swaziland, Sweden, Switzerland, Syria, Taiwan, Tajikistan, Tanzania, Thailand, Togo, Tonga, Trinidad and Tobago, Tunisia, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Turks and Caicos Islands, Uganda, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, United States of America, Uruguay, US Virgin Islands, Uzbekistan, Vanuatu, Venezuela, Vietnam, Yemen, Zambia, Zimbabwe

Table of Contents

  • Executive Summary
  • Introduction
  • LTE Technology Overview
  • Important Network Infrastructure Changes
  • Evolution History
  • New System Requirements
  • Network Architecture and Protocols overview
  • LTE Spectrum Availability
  • LTE Performance Analysis
  • Cost of LTE Investment
  • LTE License
  • LTE Infrastructure Cost
  • Network Deployment Costs
  • Estimation of Total Cost of LTE Deployment
  • LTE Terminals
  • Positioning of LTE Technology throughout the World
  • Wireless Operator Business Models
  • Principles of MNO Business Models
  • Examples of Subscription Plans with LTE and HSPA+
  • Orange France (HSPA+)
  • Telia Sweden
  • Telia Sonera Norway (Nextgentel)
  • Vodafone Germany
  • T-Mobile Austria
  • Verizon Wireless U.S.
  • AT&T U.S.
  • Telstra Australia
  • Roger Canada
  • NTT DoCoMo Japan
  • LTE Infrastructure Vendor Positions
  • Alcatel-Lucent
  • Ericsson AB
  • Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd.
  • NEC Corp.
  • Nokia Siemens Networks
  • ZTE Corporation
  • MNO Service Strategies for Next Five Years
  • Data Networking
  • Voice over IP
  • M-banking
  • M-shopping
    M-Payment
  • Application store
  • M2M
  • Music
  • Video On Demand and M-TV
  • Games
  • Mobile Advertising
  • M-health
  • P2P Messaging
  • Exploiting Customer Data to Third Parties
  • Handset and Chipset Manufacturer Strategies
  • Diagnostic of LTE Profitability, Project Risk and Growth
  • LTE Revenue Estimation 2011-2016 for the Verizon Wireless LTE System
  • Estimation of the LTE Cash Flow Generated by the Verizon Wireless LTE System (2011-2016)
  • Cannibalization and Sales Erosion Effect on the Verizon Wireless LTE System (2011-2016)
  • Effect of Sales Erosion (Cannibalism Effect) on Profitability for Years 2011-2016
  • Cash Flow from LTE Project for Years 2011-2021
  • Cannibalization and Sales Erosion Effect on the Verizon Wireless LTE System for years 2011-2021
  • Break Event Date for Verizon Wireless LTE profitability
  • LTE Risk Assessment
  • Justification of LTE Deployment in Mid-term and Risk of 2G/3G System Vulnerability
  • Is WiMAX a Threat for LTE Systems
  • Cannibalization of LTE Operator Core Revenues by Services provided by OTT Players
  • Slow Adoption of LTE Services due to Spectrum Fragmentation
  • MVNO Threat and Price War
    Will Signalling be the LTE Bottleneck